David's Amazing Adventures - Wheeling, Dealing, Reeling

Happy birfday to jediknightcub! For your present, I'm giving you a dour economic forecast. Who loves you, baby.

I was only two months late when I called the recession, which is a dubious pat on the back to myself but a pat nonetheless. (Hey, in these financial times, a pat on the back is hard to come by.) According to a report on Monday from the National Bureau of Economic Research, the U.S. has been in a recession since December, 2007. I made the call in February, 2008. Please, please, don't line up at my door wanting financial advice. Do I look like I'm celebrating? We're all in this boat together, and believe me no one is getting out unscathed.

Does it help to be told the downturn is likely to set a new postwar record for length and likely to be more painful than any recession since 1980 and 1981? Probably not.

Was it helpful that the Dow plunged nearly 680 points--a decline of nearly 9%--on the same day? Um, no.

Since pulling my money out of the market, I've watched it with fascination. I have never seen so many financial experts begin their sentences with "I think we'll see..." with a straight face, when they're doing so amidst the utter unpredictability that is the Stock Market.

And, of course, no dismal economic forecast would be complete without the comments of President Bush, whose "not my problem anymore" attitude is obvious in every word he utters in his farewell interviews, yet twists the knife by delivering wince-provoking bad grammar to the last:

"I’m sorry it’s happening, of course. Obviously, I don’t like the idea of Americans losing their jobs or being worried about their 401(k)s. On the other hand, the American people got to know that we will safeguard the system."

Master of the meaningless political sound bite. However little we attribute to George Bush, at least we have to give him that.

There is an up side to all of this, summed up by a cash-strapped friend of mine: "We ought to have economic downturns more often." Translation: prices are consequently falling. Gas may yet hit $1.50/gallon. (Remember that?) Christmas shoppers are seeing big discounts--well, assuming they can afford to shop in the first place. And it's a great time to buy a home--just snap up a foreclosure, which you can find on just about any block now. Banks don't want to keep paying property taxes or insurance and maintenance costs on them, so they're a steal. And automakers' lots are so full of unsold cars, pretty soon they'll probably let you have one for the price of just hauling it away.

Yes, these are exciting times for the economy.

I wonder if barrels will be coming back into fashion?